The Only Conceivable Way

The only conceivable way I can see Mitt Romney winning the presidential election is if people are afraid to admit they're voting for him. It turns out there's a name for this: Shy Tory Factor.

Essentially, this means that, when polled, people are afraid to admit if they're voting for a candidate who might be perceived as less-popular. Obama was so ridiculously popular in 2008, some people could hedge when it comes to admitting they're throwing support behind a Mormon candidate. (I'm sure there are other reasons they wouldn't vote for Romney, but I'm making a quick generalization because my macaroni and cheese will be done in a minute.)

I read an article from the Wall Street Journal's website stating Romney will win, and this comment sums up what's been on my mind:

All of the polls, local and national, presage a Romney victory. At least they do after a simple adjustment for a factor that has been largely ignored in the press, but will be recognized of surpassing importance for the polls in this election once the returns come in tonight. That factor is known as the "shy Tory factor" (google it for the history), where a poll respondent is unwilling to admit that he/she is voting for a particular candidate or, and more likely now in 2012, is voting against a particular candidate. Particularly in the heavily Democratic swing states which came out so heavily in favor of Obama in 2008, I would suggest that perhaps 1 in 10 of the poll respondents indicating a preference for Obama are saying so because they will not admit, until they hit the voting booth, that they are voting against the historic first black president, voting for the rich guy who would have bankrupted the car makers, voting for dirty water and air, voting not to finish what Obama started, etc. The Obama campaign has so glorified its candidate and so demonized its opponent that this less-than-truthful reaction is almost inevitable and on a significant scale. If it is one in ten, that translates to a 10% overstatement of Obama support and a corresponding 10% understatement for Romney in most state polls. Even halved, these adjustments would easily put Romney well over the top in every swing state.

As an illustration, think of Prop 8. Without looking up polling data (think of my macaroni!), I seem to remember that more people said they would vote against it than for it, but it still won by several percentage points. Granted, this was a single state and only one issue being voted upon, but I wonder if the same thing might not happen with the current candidates.

That said, I don't care who our president is for the next four years. That said, I still voted.